WiseTech Global：亚洲至北美航线未来数周海运扰动风险最高

By Charlotte Goldstone

6 November 2026

The Asia-North America tradelane is facing the highest ocean freight disruption risk over the coming weeks.

Reduced carrier capacity and growing difficulty securing bookings threaten shipment reliability, according to WiseTech Global.

The company’s November Ocean Freight Risk Outlook, released today covering weeks 45-48, rates the Asia-North America and Asia-Europe trades as high-risk overall, with Europe-North America assessed as medium risk.

It explains that on the transpacific, planned carrier capacity is expected to tighten in the second half of November, driven by reduced supply rather than stronger demand. The demand-to-supply ratio is forecast to reach 128% in week 47, indicating significant capacity constraint.

Booking security risk is also expected to climb to 71% by week 48, well above its historical average of 41%, suggesting growing difficulty securing space on preferred sailings.

At the same time, service reliability remains weak, with monthly on-time performance slipping, from 26.9% in September to 25.6% in October. Although the latest weekly figure had improved to 27.3%, delays of eight days or more remained the largest arrival outcome.

WiseTech also highlighted continuing berthing delays and renewed weather disruption across East Asia, alongside potential for industrial action, as further threats to vessel schedules.

“In the lead-up to the end of the year, Asia-North America is where we’re seeing the most risk,” said Jon Charles, senior product manager at WiseTech Global.

“Multiple factors are contributing, including reduced planned carrier capacity, rather than stronger demand, pushing the demand-to-supply ratio to 128% in week 47. What is significant is the combination of tighter capacity and elevated booking acceptance risk.

“That’s the strongest risk signal we look for, because it suggests tighter capacity is already changing booking request outcomes,” he explained. 

According to WiseTech, the outlook for Asia-Europe is different. The demand-to-supply ratio is forecast to fall from 100% in week 45 to 84% by week 47, and to 73% in week 48, indicating easing capacity pressure as the month progresses. Booking security risk is expected to remain below its historical average of 35%, declining from 23% in week 45, to 20% in weeks 46-47, before rising slightly to 23% in week 48.

However, this improving capacity picture contrasts with persistently weak service performance, with on-time arrivals continuing to deteriorate.

Last month, just 9.3% of shipments on the Asia-Europe trade arrived at the destination port on or before the carrier’s promised arrival date, down from 9.9% in September. The latest weekly performance was just 6.5% on time, while 39.1% of arrivals saw delays of eight days or more.

Shipment transit time reliability also fell across both Asian tradelanes in October, reaching 21% on Asia-North America, down six percentage points month on month, and 35% on Asia-Europe, a five-point decline.

Europe-North America presents a comparatively more stable capacity picture, with planned carrier space remaining above forecast demand, and booking acceptance risk below its historical average.

However, on-time performance fell from 39.2% in September to 34.8% in October, while the latest weekly result dropped to 24.6%. Transit-time reliability also weakened, falling three percentage points to 46%.

Industrial action at European ports presents an additional potential risk to schedules across both Europe-related tradelanes.

However, Mr Charles underscored: “Across all three tradelanes, carrier reliability varies substantially, so carrier selection matters in managing lead-time and on-time arrival risk.”